Trade data for December and for January-December 2016

January 12, 2017
Bottom line: Looking much better. In November, I warned that “The October trade data were negative almost across the board and must trigger orange warning lights.” — well, they can be switched off now. The latest data, through year-end, show that underneath the scary headline numbers, the trends are improving in both imports (declining) and exports (beginning to recover). The December figures are swollen by the INCREDIBLE level of car imports, but this boom is unsustainable. Overall, the outlook for 2017 is for the deficit to shrink.

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