Inflation Data for January 2014

Bottom line: Don’t get carried away. The seemingly sharp drop in the January CPI, of 0.6% and which caused a stir among some economists, is not more than an exaggerated seasonal phenomenon. The index usually drops in January; this year it dropped by more than usual, but mostly because of transient distortions caused by the weather (see below for some […]

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Budget Data for January 2014

Bottom line: The Treasury hit a home run in January, getting its budget performance in 2014 off to a very strong start. The key features were strong revenues, even after accounting for one-off items and the impact of tax rises enacted last year, as well as continued restraint in spending. Obviously, the question is whether these trends will be maintained […]

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