Trade Data for November and January 2013

Bottom line: The November trade data confirmed the improvement that began in September and became very visible in October. Several key trends, noted below, .have changed in recent months, contributing to the overall improvement. In particular, we would highlight the increase in imports of investment goods, both of machinery and equipment and of vehicles, as evidence of underlying strength and […]

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Inflation Data for November

Bottom line: The CPI for November fell by 0.4%, more than the consensus expectation. However, the primary factors behind the sharp fall were seasonal, in particular the 8% drop in fresh vegetable prices and the decline in hotel and airline prices. The recent storms ensure that fresh produce prices will show an offsetting – or even larger –rise in December. […]

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CPI & Inflation for October 2013

Bottom line: The October CPI rose 0.3%, much more than the consensus forecast of 0-0.1%. However, other than highlighting yet again the inability of the forecasters to handle the fluctuations stemming from seasonal factors, the latest data have no long-term significance. But they are sufficient to neutralize the yammering on the part of some analysts for another interest rate cut […]

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