November 20th, 2019
Bottom line: Much of what is happening in the economy is not good, in some cases plain bad. But the underlying trends are distorted in the quarterly GDP data by huge volatility from one quarter to the next, caused by swings in vehicle imports. Looking beyond this “noise”, it becomes clear that growth is driven only by private consumption – which is weakening – and government spending. Exports and investment are both negative factors, and even the sluggish growth of imports is bad news. In short – and despite the seemingly strong ‘headline number’ – there are increasing grounds for concern.
November 20th, 2019
現在の経済情勢はおおむね好ましくなく、場合によっては顕著に悪化している。しかし、四半期ごとのGDPデータでは、自動車輸入の振れを受け、四半期ごとに大きな変動が見られ、基調に歪みが生じている。その「ノイズ」の向こう側で成長の原動力となっているのは、個人消費――弱まる傾向にある――と政府支出のみであることが明らかだ。輸出と投資はどちらもマイナス要因であり、輸入の伸びが鈍いことでさえも吉報ではない。一言で言えば――一見強気の「見出し」にもかかわらず――懸念が高まっている» Read more
12th November 2019
Bottom line: Service exports continued their steady expansion in August, in line with the trend in 2019 to date. The main driver is exports of high-tech services as a whole, but the most dramatic rise has been in the sale of start-ups. On the other hand, growth in the exports of non-high-tech sectors has been sluggish and, in some cases, slightly negative.
税の徴収と政府支出がユダヤ教祭日（9月30日〜10月21日）の影響を受け、10月の予算データに依然としてわずかな歪みを生じる結果となった。それにもかかわらず、会計年度も入ること10ヶ月、全体像は歴然としている。財源調整を行った後の2019年度予算で確定されたレベルに歳出がとどめられたことにより、財政赤字はGDPの3.6～3.8％と、高いレベルで安定している。一方、歳入の伸びは鈍く、弱まっていく傾向にある» Read more
November 10th, 2019
Budget data for October were still slightly distorted by the impact of the Jewish holidays (Sep. 30 –Oct. 21) on tax collection and government spending. Nevertheless, ten months into the fiscal year, the general picture is very clear. The deficit has stabilised at the high level of 3.6-3.8% of GDP, thanks to government expenditure being contained at the levels determined in the adjusted 2019 budget. On the other hand, revenue growth is sluggish and looks to be weakening.
The immediate issue is whether December will see a surge in government spending, as usually happens towards the end of the fiscal year. More importantly, from January the absence of a functioning government will leave fiscal policy in a vacuum and make budget management very difficult.» Read more
October 24th , 2019
The budget data for September are significantly distorted – as is often the case — by the incidence of the Jewish holidays, which this year began on September 30 and continued through October 21. As a result, both inflows of revenues and outflows of spending are distorted, but in different ways. Offsetting distortions will occur in October, and only by taking the two months together or, better, by focusing on the January-October data, can the underlying developments by identified.
The review of the monthly data by the Accountant-General’s division highlights these distortions and provides estimates of the undistorted data. The general conclusion arising is that the trends apparent throughout 2019 are still in force. The following are a few specific data points that are relevant, despite the distortions.» Read more