TLR 171: Netanyahu and the price of defeat

September 7, 2015

The campaign fought by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu against the deal between the P5+1 powers and Iran over Iran’s nuclear programme is about to end in defeat. This issue of The Landau Report is primarily focused on that campaign and its outcome — in terms of Israel-US relations and domestic Israeli politics. It considers Netanyahu’s rationale for his extraordinary and unprecedented effort to defeat a US president within the US Congress, as well as the range of other opinions among past and present Israeli policy-makers about the Iranian deal and what Israel can and should do in response.

The diplomatic aspects of this topic are considered in Section A: Regional Developments, while the domestic political aspects are addressed in Section B: Domestic Politics. The latter analysis extends into a more speculative vein, relating the latest developments in diplomacy and in various areas of domestic policy to the analysis in previous issues of TLR of the future of Netanyahu personally and of Likud as the dominant party in Israeli politics.

In addition, Section A looks at the surprising turn in Israel-Hamas relations — from an expected ‘next round’ that did not take place this summer, to a possible long-term and broad-ranging ceasefire. This development and the forces driving it, along with other seemingly surprising changes in the line-up of alliances and groupings within the region, is set into the context of the ongoing regional upheaval. In tracing Israel’s policies toward the countries, ethnic groups and organisations caught up in the maelstrom, it turns out that some old-established policies and attitudes are proving obsolete and need to be revamped or jettisoned entirely — while others have retained or even enhanced their validity, even in a very different and rapidly-changing Middle East.

Contents

A: Regional Developments
  1. The Iranian deal 
  1. A deal with Hamas? 
  1. Watchfully sidelined 
  1. Friends, potential allies, frenemies and enemies
B: Domestic Politics 
  1. Who will take the rap?
  1. Domestic fallout 

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