TLR 194- Who Won? What Happens Next?
September 19, 2019
The Israeli election of 2019 turned out to be a match with two ‘legs’. For people who don’t follow football (soccer in the US), let me explain what that means: the teams play each other twice, once at ‘home’ and once ‘away’ (at the other team’s home ground). The result is the cumulative outcome of the two legs.
A] The election results
B] The election outcome
C: What happens next?
TACTICAL BOTTOM LINE: This is a slow-moving thriller, but the tension will mount steadily during October and November. I would expect a resolution in November, along the lines of the scenario outlined above – i.e. an indictment of Netanyahu, followed by a revolt in Likud, a split and the establishment of a ‘broad’ coalition including Blue & White, ‘Likud 2.0’, Yisrael Beiteinu and one or two other parties. However, this coalition will probably command less than 70 seats and may well prove weak and unstable.
STRATEGIC BOTTOM LINE: Israel is moving from stable politics in which a single figure is dominant, to political instability with no dominant figure. This process has begun, but the transitional period may extend over several years and at least one, perhaps two, more elections may be needed before a new equilibrium is reached.